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Ashraf Laidi
(London, United Kingdom)
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Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
Oct 24, 2008 18:42
In Thread: Yen's Path of Least Resistance
Hi Luca, the rebound in gold will happen at the next dosage of central bank rate cuts. As I said in the piece, gold's jump of mid September occured on the rise in fed funds' expectations for rate cuts by the Fed and other cenbanks following Lehman's collapse. As for collective buying of precious metals, it will happen with more confidence once risk aversion trades diminish, the dollar begins to ease and gold leads the way. This would also be a time of stabilization in the yen. Don't forget Indian Wedding Season starts in November, which is supportive for gold.

Ashraf
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
Oct 24, 2008 10:46
In Thread: Yen Still Outperforms in Forex Meltdown
Ced, stick with remaining long USD except against JPY. CHF is best bought against EUR, GBP, AUD and NZD.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
Oct 24, 2008 9:40
In Thread: Yen Still Outperforms in Forex Meltdown
Steve, USDCAD is testing the important 1.2730-40 resistance which is the high from March 2005 and the low from January 2004. Such confluence suggests decent resistance, which could especially hold if OPEC surprises with a bigger than expected rate cut. But if the status quo holds, expect to break this major resistance and head on 1.30.

Ashraf
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
Oct 23, 2008 18:46
In Thread: Yen Still Outperforms in Forex Meltdown
Tim,

I wouldnt call the JPY "junk" as Japan is the most isolated from the subprime mess. Even Switzerland is affected by the Eurozone's exposure to the CDO and CDS meltdown. So the reason the JPY is the best performer is its LOW YIELD as well as its RELATIVE ISOLATION from this toxic instruments. Now, when risk appetite is being put back in and stocks begin to rally (or a week or two) the JPY will undoubtedly lose ground, but this would present a great opportunity for BUYING IT again.

LAST WEEK was a great example. as USDJPY was rising due to that short term recovery in stocks, I warned that 102.50 and 103.00 were key resistance levels. We all know what happened after that.

Ashraf
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
Oct 22, 2008 6:04
In Thread: USDJPY Strategy and Yield Curve Analysis
Steve, Aussie was propped by higher than expected Q3 CPI figures up 1.3% from 1.5% in Q2 and year on year rate rose to 7-year high of 5.0% so that boosted Aussie but it didnt prevent the currency from falling against the dollar as did all other higher yielders. Cable remains the big short vs USD after those comments from King.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
Oct 21, 2008 22:02
In Thread: USDJPY Strategy and Yield Curve Analysis
Tim, yen is strong due rising risk aversion (falling risk appetite) which drives flows outr of high yielding currencies and into lower yielding currencies such as JPY and USD. It is very important to understand this concept in this environment. This has been single most important dynamic of the past 2 years.

Ive explained risk appetite in detail all over this site, as well as in CHAPTER 5 of my book "Risk Appetite in the Markets", where I use illustrations showing relationship between stocks, VIX, JPY and the higher yielding currencies such as AUD, NZD and GBP. I repeat, if you want to make money in this forex market, you must grasp the concept of Forex and risk appetite. My book is the first ever book to devote a detailed chapter on this. Chapter 5.http://www.ashraflaidi.com/book/
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
Oct 21, 2008 18:49
In Thread: Retail Sales' Message from Main Street
Thanks Francis. pls refer to the latest EUR analysis in the latest Intraday Thoughts. Also, it is better to add comments to the Comments Box in the latest article. Thks
A
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
Oct 20, 2008 23:46
In Thread: USDJPY Strategy and Yield Curve Analysis
Steve,

0.76 seems a decent resistance for AUDUSD as far as best case scenario. Yesterday's Aussie PPi data means tomorrow night's CPI data will be also on the high side and further push Aussie higher. Absent any aggressive seling in Wall St on Tuesday, we may see 0.75 after tomrrow's CPI release.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
Oct 20, 2008 11:18
In Thread: USDJPY Strategy and Yield Curve Analysis
Ken, please contact me at ashraf@ashraflaidi.com
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
Oct 18, 2008 19:51
In Thread: USDJPY Strategy and Yield Curve Analysis
Steve,
Yes, prices could RISE towards those resistance levels then are likely to fail. As for the possibility that prices will drop from current level without extending higher to those resistance targets, it is less probable. We'll have to see how sentiment develops early next week. Just say tuned.

As for your statement that I have been "providing free advice all the time after CMC", I am still with CMC. I will be joining our London headquarters in early November, so CMC clients can still receive my analysis. Also, the advice on this site may have been free but it is adhoc, meaning it covers one particular pair or another, and NOT all of them on a daily basis.

At any rate, for all those who have been appreciating these analysis, all of it is covered in bigger detail in my book (gold-oil ratio, yield curve analysis to help you read forex and central banks and carry trades). There's also an extensive section on the dollar and stock market cycles during years of pesidential elections and following elections. The book is due out on Dec 15 but you can pre-order it today at a discount from Amazon by clicking on the book section in this site.

Ashraf
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